Forecasted Questions
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 06:56PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 29, 2021 06:56PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 20% | 14% | +6% | -2% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 35% | 31% | +4% | -1% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 25% | 33% | -8% | +3% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 15% | 17% | -2% | +1% |
More than 0.5 | 5% | 4% | +1% | -1% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 06:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 29, 2021 06:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 14% | 0% | 3% | -3% | -3% |
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 61% | 12% | +49% | -4% |
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 22% | 31% | -9% | -3% |
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 14% | 40% | -26% | +9% |
More than 20% | 3% | 14% | -11% | +1% |
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 06:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 29, 2021 06:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 2% | 2% | 7% | -5% | -1% |
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 8% | 23% | -15% | -1% |
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 11% | 33% | -22% | -1% |
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 26% | 21% | +5% | +1% |
More than 8% | 53% | 16% | +37% | +2% |
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 07:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 29, 2021 07:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)