INFER Public

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2020 08:45AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2020 09:16AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $190 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $190 billion and $230 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $230 billion but less than or equal to $270 billion		Answer was correct
More than $270 billion but less than or equal to $310 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $310 billion		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2020 02:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $300 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion		Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion		Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2020 08:19AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 20,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 20,000 and 35,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35,000 but less than or equal to 50,000		Answer was correct
More than 50,000 but less than or equal to 65,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 65,000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2020 08:32AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50%		Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than 60%		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2020 08:41AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2020 09:39PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2020 09:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2020 08:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2020 08:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36%		Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39%		Answer was incorrect
More than 39%		Answer was incorrect

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Sebastian Witteler

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