65th
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

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Forecasted Questions
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[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2021 10:42AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 35%

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2021 01:18PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% 5% 7%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive 25% 23%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 40% 33%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 23% 21%
More than 8% 7% 16%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 04, 2022 12:37PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 28, 2022 10:39AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Apple 48% 48%
Microsoft 25% 22%
Alphabet (Google) 12% 13%
Amazon 12% 10%
Tesla 1% 3%
Meta (Facebook) 2% 1%
Other 0% 2%

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 28, 2022 09:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 28, 2022 09:26AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 14% 0% 3%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 0% 12%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 21% 31%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 59% 40%
More than 20% 20% 14%

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 28, 2022 09:53AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2022 08:52AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 13, 2022 11:58AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2022 02:41PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Intel 15% 16%
Samsung 19% 53%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) 66% 30%
Other 0% 0%
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