Forecasted Questions
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2021 02:39AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 01, 2021 02:39AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2021 03:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 31, 2021 03:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2021 03:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 31, 2021 03:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 10% | 14% | -4% | +0% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 40% | 31% | +9% | +0% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 29% | 33% | -4% | +0% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 17% | 17% | +0% | 0% |
| More than 0.5 | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2022 05:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 31, 2022 05:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 28% | 48% | -20% | +19% |
| Microsoft | 14% | 22% | -8% | +6% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 10% | 13% | -3% | -4% |
| Amazon | 25% | 10% | +15% | -8% |
| Tesla | 10% | 3% | +7% | -5% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 10% | 1% | +9% | -6% |
| Other | 3% | 2% | +1% | -2% |
Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2022 12:35AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 28, 2022 12:35AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel | 14% | 16% | -2% | -2% |
| Samsung | 25% | 53% | -28% | -7% |
| TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) | 60% | 30% | +30% | +9% |
| Other | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
As of Jul 29, 2023 07:57PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2023 07:57PM UTC
(11 months ago)
Jun 29, 2023 07:57PM UTC
(11 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Jun 29, 2023 to Dec 29, 2023 | Jul 29, 2023 | 1% | +1% | +0% |