INFER Public

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2020 08:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2020 08:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2020 04:20PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $12 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $12 billion and $16 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $16 billion but less than or equal to $20 billion		Answer was correct
More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $24 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $24 billion		Answer was incorrect

How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2020 04:36PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $40 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $100 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2020 03:20AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2020 01:35AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2020 03:43PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2020 10:08PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $400 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $640 billion		Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2020 02:23PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was correct
More than 80%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2020 02:28PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5%		Answer was incorrect

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