Forecasted Questions
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 06:56PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 17, 2021 06:56PM UTC
(2 years ago)
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2021 07:55AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 30, 2021 07:55AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 35% | -15% | +1% |
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 14, 2021 06:42AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 14, 2021 06:42AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 0% | 7% | -7% | -1% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 17% | 23% | -6% | -2% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 33% | 33% | +0% | -1% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 33% | 21% | +12% | +0% |
| More than 8% | 17% | 16% | +1% | +3% |
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2021 05:30AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 19, 2021 05:30AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 0% | 14% | -14% | -1% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 10% | 31% | -21% | -1% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 28% | 33% | -5% | +2% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 34% | 17% | +17% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 28% | 4% | +24% | +0% |
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2022 12:07AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 04, 2022 12:07AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2022 12:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 04, 2022 12:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2022 02:26AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 04, 2022 02:26AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2022 08:02AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 24, 2022 08:02AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2022 01:39AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 25, 2022 01:39AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 33% | 48% | -15% | +9% |
| Microsoft | 17% | 22% | -5% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 0% | 13% | -13% | -2% |
| Amazon | 0% | 10% | -10% | -5% |
| Tesla | 17% | 3% | +14% | -3% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
| Other | 33% | 2% | +31% | -1% |
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 08, 2022 04:50AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 08, 2022 04:50AM UTC
(2 years ago)