47th
Accuracy Rank

YJAung

Yan Aung
About:
Show more

0.541142

Relative Brier Score

37

Forecasts

4

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 6 32 381 109 1047
Comments 2 5 103 21 219
Questions Forecasted 6 26 96 39 247
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 51 10 93
 Definitions
New Badge
YJAung
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
YJAung
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Apr 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
YJAung
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Kuwait
1% (0%)
Oman
1% (0%)
Qatar
4% (+2%)
Saudi Arabia
1% (0%)
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?

moving up temporarily due to news about normalisation of relations between Saudi and Israel:https://www.newarab.com/news/us-almost-ready-saudi-rewards-ties-israel

Files
Why might you be wrong?

underestimating the relation between normalisation and statehood recognition

Files
New Prediction
YJAung
made their 6th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on May 30, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25% (+24%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
75% (-24%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024

Moving up due to https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/127924

When picking a timing for announcement I do think now would be very sensitive, potentially a bit less after the presidential election, so still leaning more towards no. Also because the Saudi's insist on a path to statehood for the palestinians, which I am not so sure Israel is willing to commit to  https://www.newarab.com/news/us-almost-ready-saudi-rewards-ties-israel

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
YJAung
made their 4th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Jul 30, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
97% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
YJAung
made their 5th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on May 30, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (-1%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
97% (+1%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

lowering due to escalation of iran - israel tensions, I expect the focus of the people is on this conflict and when it is country against country I expect it is less likely that there are internal protests against their own goverment (+iranians seem quite united concerning opposing israel)

Files
Why might you be wrong?

how much the tensions and fears affect the reductions in protests concerning other topics, like the ones against the morality police

Files
New Prediction
YJAung
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

time

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username