no deaths reported so far from the attack on israel from Iran
0.034373
Relative Brier Score
91
Forecasts
10
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 44 | 368 | 91 | 1029 |
| Comments | 2 | 7 | 102 | 19 | 217 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 34 | 95 | 37 | 245 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 51 | 10 | 93 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
(-25%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
30%
(+25%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+80%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
0%
(-80%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
happened
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(+73%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
5%
(-73%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
300+ missiles and drones fired at israel from Iran. That sounds like they effectively are at war, but still waiting for official declarationhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/iran-missile-and-drone-attack-on-israel-what-we-know-so-far
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(+15%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
75%
(-15%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Iran missle and drone attack on israel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-9%)
Yes
97%
(+9%)
No
time left, lack of strong insentive to do this (e.g. legal) + difficulty of doing this accurately
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
18%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
starting comparatively high because of escalating tensions; Damascus attack and ship seizing
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Comment deleted on Apr 13, 2024 07:44PM UTC
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
time left + hardware factor limitations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
Less than or equal to 499
2%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 2000
Why do you think you're right?
most recent numbers
Files
Why might you be wrong?
large unexpected event
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+8%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
90%
(-8%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
If Iran were to attack Israel I expect the US to get involved https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-attack-expected-on-israel-in-next-two-days-42b0537c
Files