Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2021 07:42PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 27, 2021 07:42PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 35% | -5% | +0% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2021 12:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 08, 2021 12:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2021 12:19PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 15, 2021 12:19PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 10% | 14% | -4% | -2% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 35% | 31% | +4% | -1% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 35% | 33% | +2% | +2% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 15% | 17% | -2% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2021 12:53PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 15, 2021 12:53PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2021 04:55PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 10, 2021 04:55PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2021 05:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 10, 2021 05:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 15% | 7% | +8% | +0% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 35% | 23% | +12% | +0% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 35% | 33% | +2% | +0% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 10% | 21% | -11% | +0% |
| More than 8% | 5% | 16% | -11% | +0% |
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 18, 2022 03:20PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 18, 2022 03:20PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 35% | 48% | -13% | +11% |
| Microsoft | 27% | 22% | +5% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 18% | 13% | +5% | -3% |
| Amazon | 10% | 10% | +0% | -5% |
| Tesla | 5% | 3% | +2% | -3% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 2% | 1% | +1% | -3% |
| Other | 3% | 2% | +1% | -1% |
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 18, 2022 03:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 18, 2022 03:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 18, 2022 03:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 18, 2022 03:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 18, 2022 03:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 18, 2022 03:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)