INFER Public

Forecasted Questions

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 24, 2021 08:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2021 12:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%	7%	7%	+0%	-1%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive	17%	23%	-6%	-1%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6%	41%	33%	+8%	+0%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8%	26%	21%	+5%	+1%
More than 8%	9%	16%	-7%	+1%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2021 01:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2021 01:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	35%	-20%	-4%

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2021 01:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2021 08:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2021 04:35PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 12:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 12:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 23, 2022 05:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Apple	60%	48%	+12%	+10%
Microsoft	2%	22%	-20%	+3%
Alphabet (Google)	3%	13%	-10%	-3%
Amazon	15%	10%	+5%	-5%
Tesla	10%	3%	+7%	-3%
Meta (Facebook)	5%	1%	+4%	-2%
Other	5%	2%	+3%	-1%