They haven't debuted the 433-Qubit Osprey chip which they committed to doing in 2022. While there are still two months left in the year, the holiday season is a pretty terrible time to debut new IT products. So they're probably at least a little behind schedule.
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Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
Hard to compute a defensible outside view, so moderating between Team, Crowd, and gut instinct.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(+6%)
Less than $8.5 billion
28%
(+21%)
More than $8.5 billion but less than or equal to $10 billion
34%
(+12%)
Between $10 billion and $11.5 billion, inclusive
20%
(-17%)
Between $11.5 billion and $13 billion, inclusive
10%
(-22%)
More than $13 billion
Coming into alignment with Team consensus.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Less than 12,000
33%
More than or equal to 12,000 but less than 15,000
38%
More than or equal to 15,000 but less than 18,000
15%
More than or equal to 18,000
Crowd's probably right.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
The base rate of 200+ fatalities in a year is 2/13, implying a ~15% probability in a randomly-selected year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
It's possible, but it would be a fat-tail outlier. Since 2015, ACLED has only recorded 24 total Protests or Riots, resulting in 4 total fatalities in ALL of Saudi Arabia (14 and 1 respectively in the Eastern province).
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Why might you be wrong?
Black Swans are among us!
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In the available data, the number has grown in 75% of years. Moreover, it has been higher than the 2022 value in 50% of the available data, and the 50% was the latter two preceding years, implying a general growth trend with 2021 as an outlier.