Gandt

For this question to resolve positively, at least two things would need to happen:

1. The Council announces new sanctions before 31 July 2022, and
2. Those sanctions include restricting access to cloud services.

I think both of those steps are pretty unlikely. 

On the sanctions:

• The timeline is pretty tight. Negotiations about a new package of sanctions likely only started after 20 June [1]. As of 4 July, no substantial progress seems to have been made [2]. Also, it's likely that the effective deadline is actually before 31 July because of the summer break. I couldn't find specific information about the start of the summer break for the Council, only that there will be a break [3] and that the Parliament's break starts on 25 July [4]. It's reasonable to assume that this coincides with the Council's break
• In addition, there is resistance from within, with Hungary explicitly against further sanctions [5].
• Given that the war has shifted to a more drawn-out phase, there is likely less pressure in general to agree on further sanctions, too.

All in all, I think there isn't more than a 20% chance that additional sanctions will be announced before the end of the month.

On cloud services:

• Apart from the initial, now redacted press release, I haven't found any reference to possible sanctions on cloud services. I think this at least suggests that cloud services aren't a super hotly dicussed topic. 
• In addition, the initial Reuters article suggests that implementing sanctions on cloud services is actually pretty difficult because those services are mostly provided by U.S. compaies. This decreases the likelihood further that such sanctions will be announced this month.

All in all, I think it's fair to assume that there isn't more than again a 20% chance that a possible 7th package will actually contain cloud services.

This leads me to a combined estimate of 4%.

[1]: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/poland-to-appeal-for-seventh-package-of-russian-sanctions/
[2]: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3521894-eu-has-not-yet-agreed-on-seventh-package-of-sanctions-against-russia-swedish-pm.html
[3]: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2022)730336
[4]: https://www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/eu-institution-news/european-parliament-summer-recess/
[5]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-more-eu-sanctions-russia-needed-negotiations-better-option-hungary-2022-06-23/

Update to follow market conditions again.