MullenAustin

Austin Mullen
About:
Show more
Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 08:42PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 40% 35%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2021 02:41PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2021 03:19PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% 5% 7%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive 25% 23%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 45% 33%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 20% 21%
More than 8% 5% 16%

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2021 07:06PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than -0.25 10% 14%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive 39% 31%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 31% 33%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 15% 17%
More than 0.5 5% 4%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2021 04:57PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2022 01:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2022 05:01PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2022 10:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Apple 38% 48%
Microsoft 24% 22%
Alphabet (Google) 16% 13%
Amazon 13% 10%
Tesla 7% 3%
Meta (Facebook) 2% 1%
Other 0% 2%

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 02:21PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 14% 1% 3%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 5% 12%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 16% 31%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 41% 40%
More than 20% 37% 14%

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 02:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username