INFER Public

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2020 11:25PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 6,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000		Answer was correct
More than 12,000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2020 11:29PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36%		Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39%		Answer was incorrect
More than 39%		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2020 11:46PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $30 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $150 million		Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2020 06:05AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 20,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 20,000 and 35,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35,000 but less than or equal to 50,000		Answer was correct
More than 50,000 but less than or equal to 65,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 65,000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2020 06:53AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50%		Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than 60%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2020 07:03AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2020 07:38AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $300 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion		Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2020 07:40AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2020 07:41AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2020 01:39PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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