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Forecasted Questions

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2021 06:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 14% 2% 3%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 26% 12%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 34% 31%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 28% 40%
More than 20% 10% 14%

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2021 06:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% 3% 7%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive 27% 23%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 27% 33%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 25% 21%
More than 8% 18% 16%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2021 07:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2021 05:29PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than -0.25 11% 14%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive 32% 31%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 32% 33%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 22% 17%
More than 0.5 3% 4%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 10:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 11:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 11:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2021 06:07AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2021 08:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2021 05:05PM UTC
(2 years ago)
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