Confirmed previous forecast
1.555772
Relative Brier Score
118
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 29 | 36 | 308 | 118 | 639 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 59 |
Questions Forecasted | 29 | 36 | 66 | 43 | 131 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 21 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
53%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
7%
(0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
12%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
19%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Files
Are you sure, that we will go from 28 incidents in our spreadsheet in 11 months (updated monthly) to 50+ in 4 weeks without any news pointing in that direction?
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
91%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
50%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
89%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
84%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files