81st
Accuracy Rank

Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa
About:

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All Time Stats

10.082704

Relative Brier Score

639

Forecasts

21

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 29 36 308 118 639
Comments 0 0 5 1 59
Questions Forecasted 29 36 66 43 131
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 10 2 21
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Iran: Threats & Influence, China Politics, Relations, and Technology, Science & Technology, U.S.-China

Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program, Mission: Diplomacy, Semiconductor Supply Chain, Iran-VNSAs, Decoding Disinformation

New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Aadebamiwa77 made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
53% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
7% (0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
12% (0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
19% (0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
9% (0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
PeterStamp made a comment:
Are you sure, that we will go from 28 incidents in our spreadsheet in 11 months (updated monthly) to 50+ in 4 weeks without any news pointing in that direction?
Files
New Badge
Aadebamiwa77 earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Aadebamiwa77 made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Aadebamiwa77 made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
91% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Aadebamiwa77 made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Aadebamiwa77 made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
50% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Aadebamiwa77 made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
89% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Aadebamiwa77 made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
84% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Aadebamiwa77 made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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