Forecasted Questions
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2021 09:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 02, 2021 09:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2021 09:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 05, 2021 09:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 10% | 7% | +3% | +0% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 15% | 23% | -8% | +0% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 30% | 33% | -3% | +0% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 25% | 21% | +4% | +0% |
| More than 8% | 20% | 16% | +4% | +0% |
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2021 07:56AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 16, 2021 07:56AM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2021 10:28AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 26, 2021 10:28AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 5% | 14% | -9% | +0% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 45% | 31% | +14% | +0% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 45% | 33% | +12% | +1% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 5% | 17% | -12% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 03, 2022 10:20PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 03, 2022 10:20PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 22, 2022 08:43AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 22, 2022 08:43AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 40% | 48% | -8% | +11% |
| Microsoft | 25% | 22% | +3% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 25% | 13% | +12% | -3% |
| Amazon | 5% | 10% | -5% | -5% |
| Tesla | 1% | 3% | -2% | -3% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 4% | 1% | +3% | -2% |
| Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 05:05PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 04, 2022 05:05PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 05:08PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 04, 2022 05:08PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 22, 2022 09:41AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 22, 2022 09:41AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 4% | 12% | -8% | -1% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 17% | 31% | -14% | -2% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 55% | 40% | +15% | +2% |
| More than 20% | 23% | 14% | +9% | +1% |
How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 17, 2022 08:51PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 17, 2022 08:51PM UTC
(1 year ago)