Forecasted Questions
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2023 09:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 17, 2023 09:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 67% | 15% | +52% | -35% |
| No | 33% | 85% | -52% | +35% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2023 09:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 17, 2023 09:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2023 02:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 04, 2023 02:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2% | +1% | -3% |
| No | 97% | 98% | -1% | +3% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2023 02:01PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 04, 2023 02:01PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | -4% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2023 02:02PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 04, 2023 02:02PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 96% | +0% | +1% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2023 02:02PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 04, 2023 02:02PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +1% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2023 02:02PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 04, 2023 02:02PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | -4% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +4% |