65th
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 09:53PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 98%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 09:54PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 4%
No 99% 96%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 4%
No 95% 96%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 Jul 30, 2024 0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 2% 4%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 98% 95%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 09:58PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 3%
No 99% 97%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 09:58PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 09:59PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 6% Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2024 6%
No 94% Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2024 94%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:02PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024 May 30, 2024 7%
No 90% Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024 May 30, 2024 93%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 1%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%
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