Forecasted Questions
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:06AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:06AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 12% | +8% | -19% |
| No | 80% | 88% | -8% | +19% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:06AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:06AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Oman | 8% | 2% | +6% | -1% |
| Qatar | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 10% | 5% | +5% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 13% | 1% | +12% | -1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 4% | +8% | -1% |
| No | 88% | 96% | -8% | +1% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:08AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:08AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:08AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:08AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 2% | +7% | -1% |
| No | 91% | 98% | -7% | +1% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:12AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:12AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +1% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:18AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:18AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 4% | +1% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 96% | -1% | +2% |