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Question 1 of 3 in Immigration
Started Sep 28, 2020 10:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

Conditional on President Trump's re-election: What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Related question. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here

Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.

Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming President Trump is re-elected. If he does not, this question will not be scored. If Biden is elected, the companion question will be scored instead.

This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Fiscal year 2020 in the graph below includes only 11 months of data, through August 2020. September data will be added to the graph when it's available. 

 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Name Probability
Less than 2% 11%
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive 37%
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5% 42%
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5% 8%
More than 6.5% 2%

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