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Started Jun 17, 2020 02:04PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 28, 2020 08:00PM UTC

What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Context. O-1 is a category of U.S. visas for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.

Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O-1 visa statistics for September 2020. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. The year-quarters on the X-axis below are based on the calendar year, not the government fiscal year. 

 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

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Resolution Notes
The answer is 0.8%. The absolute numbers were quite low, with 6 Chinese O-1 visas and 770 total O-1 visas. See the stats here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B3rlnjtJClSjb_cEJxvxN_O6WSCmlK3jvrkEuFGcvbE/edit#gid=630081342
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2% 12%
Between 2% and 4% inclusive 41%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 31%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 12%
More than 8% 4%

No. of
Forecasters

51

Forecast
Count

68

Crowd Brier Score

0.431


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.355
2.
-0.283
3.
-0.261
5.
-0.128

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