What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?
Closed Sep 28, 2020 08:00PM UTC
Context. O-1 is a category of U.S. visas for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.
Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O-1 visa statistics for September 2020. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. The year-quarters on the X-axis below are based on the calendar year, not the government fiscal year.
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:
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Question clarification
Hong Kong is not included in China's O-1 visa count. For more detail on how the Department of State breaks down regions, see: https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyNIVIssuances/June%202020%20-%20NIV%20Issuances%20by%20Nationality%20and%20Visa%20Class.pdf
The answer is 0.8%. The absolute numbers were quite low, with 6 Chinese O-1 visas and 770 total O-1 visas. See the stats here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B3rlnjtJClSjb_cEJxvxN_O6WSCmlK3jvrkEuFGcvbE/edit#gid=630081342
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 12% | |
| Between 2% and 4% inclusive | 41% | |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 31% | |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 12% | |
| More than 8% | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 51 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 59 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 68 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
