Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?
This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.
Related questions. A similar question was published on Metaculus in May 2018 as part of the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see here.
Context. Many view China as becoming increasingly military aggressive. Experts are divided on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently stated that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both recently increased their military presence on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "preferred warm-up fight" for China.
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them.
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What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.
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