Forecasted Questions
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 03, 2024 04:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 03, 2024 04:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 96% | 99% | -3% | +5% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 4% | 1% | +3% | -4% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 12:31AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 14, 2024 12:31AM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 92% | 82% | +10% | +1% |
| No | 8% | 18% | -10% | -1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 12:32AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 14, 2024 12:32AM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 | Jul 14, 2024 | 14% | +84% | +3% |
| No | 2% | Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 | Jul 14, 2024 | 86% | -84% | -3% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 12:34AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 14, 2024 12:34AM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 | May 14, 2024 | 21% | +54% | +1% |
| No | 25% | Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 | May 14, 2024 | 79% | -54% | -1% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 12:35AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 14, 2024 12:35AM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 2% | +10% | +0% |
| No | 88% | 98% | -10% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 01:03PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 01:03PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 4% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 96% | +1% | +1% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 01:04PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 01:04PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 13% | -10% | -2% |
| No | 97% | 87% | +10% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 01:04PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 01:04PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Jul 24, 2024 | 7% | -2% | -2% |
| No | 95% | Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Jul 24, 2024 | 93% | +2% | +2% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 01:05PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 01:05PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 96% | +2% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 07:37AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Apr 29, 2024 07:37AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |