nuclearwonk

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Forecasted Questions
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Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 05, 2020 04:33PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 05, 2020 04:42PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 05, 2020 04:47PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $300 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 05, 2020 04:51PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 25, 2021 06:16PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct
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