Forecasted Questions
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 05, 2020 04:37PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 05, 2020 04:37PM UTC
(4 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2020 12:35AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 09, 2020 12:35AM UTC
(4 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2020 10:46PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 28, 2020 10:46PM UTC
(4 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 6,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000 | Answer was correct | |||
| More than 12,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2020 11:22PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 28, 2020 11:22PM UTC
(4 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 675 | Answer was correct | |||
| Between 675 and 750, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than 750 but less than or equal to 825 | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than 825 but less than or equal to 900 | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than 900 | Answer was incorrect | |||