Forecasted Questions
Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 05, 2020 04:13PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 05, 2020 04:13PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 05, 2020 04:22PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 05, 2020 04:22PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 05, 2020 04:59PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 05, 2020 04:59PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 5,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500 | Answer was correct | |||
More than12,500 | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 06, 2020 01:48AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 06, 2020 01:48AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 0.5% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5% | Answer was correct | |||
More than 1.5% | Answer was incorrect |
How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 15, 2020 08:30PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jul 15, 2020 08:30PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 6,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000 | Answer was correct | |||
More than 12,000 | Answer was incorrect |
How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 15, 2020 08:33PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jul 15, 2020 08:33PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 20,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 20,000 and 35,000, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 35,000 but less than or equal to 50,000 | Answer was correct | |||
More than 50,000 but less than or equal to 65,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 65,000 | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 15, 2020 08:37PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jul 15, 2020 08:37PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 30% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36% | Answer was correct | |||
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 39% | Answer was incorrect |
Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 22, 2020 02:27PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jul 22, 2020 02:27PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 21, 2020 07:28PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Aug 21, 2020 07:28PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2020 01:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Aug 25, 2020 01:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |