Forecasted Questions
How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2020 09:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Sep 24, 2020 09:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than $200 million | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million | Answer was correct | |||
More than $500 million | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2020 05:04AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Nov 01, 2020 05:04AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 15% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive | Answer was correct | |||
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 21% | Answer was incorrect |
Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2021 08:06PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Apr 08, 2021 08:06PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2021 11:36PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 12, 2021 11:36PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2021 11:36PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 12, 2021 11:36PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 13, 2021 05:31PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 13, 2021 05:31PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 30 (good reputation) | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 30 and 40, inclusive | Answer was correct | |||
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 60 (bad reputation) | Answer was incorrect |
What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 13, 2021 05:31PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 13, 2021 05:31PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than $400 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion | Answer was correct | |||
More than $775 billion | Answer was incorrect |
When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 13, 2021 06:07PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 13, 2021 06:07PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Before January 1, 2022 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022 | Answer was correct | |||
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Not before October 1, 2022 | Answer was incorrect |
Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?
As of Feb 10, 2022 05:11PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jun 01, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2021 05:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 10, 2021 05:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was correct |