z272

About:

Show more
View All Badges ยป
Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 05, 2020 04:34PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 16, 2020 03:01PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 24, 2020 03:53PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 6,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000 Answer was correct
More than 12,000 Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 24, 2020 03:57PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 5,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500 Answer was correct
More than12,500 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 26, 2020 05:13PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 1.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5% Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% Answer was incorrect
More than 6% Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 22, 2020 02:34PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2020 06:06PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was incorrect
More than 80% Answer was correct

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2021 04:02PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel