Forecasted Questions
How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 09, 2020 12:09AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Aug 09, 2020 12:09AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than $200 million | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million | Answer was correct | |||
More than $500 million | Answer was incorrect |
Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2020 03:10AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Sep 29, 2020 03:10AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2020 10:13PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 17, 2020 10:13PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 15% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive | Answer was correct | |||
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 21% | Answer was incorrect |
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2021 12:58AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 29, 2021 12:58AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 26, 2021 04:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 26, 2021 04:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 59% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 80% | Answer was correct |
When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2022 01:03AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 01:03AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Before January 1, 2022 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022 | Answer was correct | |||
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Not before October 1, 2022 | Answer was incorrect |
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2023 07:20PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Apr 27, 2023 07:20PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was correct |
Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Jul 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2023 07:20PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Apr 27, 2023 07:20PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
IBM Corporation | Answer was incorrect | |||
BrainChip Holdings Ltd. | Answer was incorrect | |||
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. | Answer was incorrect |