Joseph

About:
Show more
Forecasted Questions

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 09, 2020 12:09AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $200 million Answer was incorrect
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million Answer was incorrect
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million Answer was correct
More than $500 million Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2020 03:10AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2020 10:13PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 15% Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% Answer was incorrect
More than 21% Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2021 12:58AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 26, 2021 04:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was incorrect
More than 80% Answer was correct

When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2022 01:03AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Before January 1, 2022 Answer was incorrect
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022 Answer was incorrect
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022 Answer was correct
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022 Answer was incorrect
Not before October 1, 2022 Answer was incorrect

Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2023 07:20PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2023 07:20PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
IBM Corporation Answer was incorrect
BrainChip Holdings Ltd. Answer was incorrect
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. Answer was incorrect
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username