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Forecasted Questions

Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2020 06:01PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2020 03:15AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5% Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5% Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2020 10:16PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 15% Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% Answer was incorrect
More than 21% Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 18, 2020 01:26AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2021 05:21PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Before February 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021 Answer was correct

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2021 03:50PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2022 01:04AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct
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