Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2024 10:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 28, 2024 10:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 96% | +0% | +0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2024 10:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 28, 2024 10:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 08:47PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 01, 2024 08:47PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 20% | -16% | +13% |
| No | 96% | 80% | +16% | -13% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 08:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 01, 2024 08:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 57% | -7% | -37% |
| No | 50% | 43% | +7% | +37% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 15, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 14% | -9% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 86% | +9% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 15, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 8% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 92% | +5% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86% | 55% | +31% | -3% |
| No | 14% | 45% | -31% | +3% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024 | Jul 15, 2024 | 8% | +7% | -1% |
| No | 85% | Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024 | Jul 15, 2024 | 92% | -7% | +1% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 15, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 4% | 5% | -1% | -8% |
| Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 96% | 94% | +2% | +7% |
| More than or equal to 3000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |