INFER Public

Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?

Question Ends:
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2020 01:58AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2020 12:46AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 20,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 20,000 and 35,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35,000 but less than or equal to 50,000		Answer was correct
More than 50,000 but less than or equal to 65,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 65,000		Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2020 02:38AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 6,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000		Answer was correct
More than 12,000		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 01, 2020 12:50AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $30 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $150 million		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 01, 2020 12:55AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2020 02:24AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2020 02:55AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $200 million		Answer was correct
More than $200 million but less than or equal to $500 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $500 million and $800 million, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $800 million but less than or equal to $1.1 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $1.1 billion		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2020 03:12AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $300 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion		Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 07, 2020 02:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%		Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6%		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 14, 2020 02:43AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $190 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $190 billion and $230 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $230 billion but less than or equal to $270 billion		Answer was correct
More than $270 billion but less than or equal to $310 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $310 billion		Answer was incorrect

Mark_Xu

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