Forecasted Questions
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 08:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 08:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 8% | +12% | +1% |
| No | 80% | 92% | -12% | -1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 02:51AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 02:51AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 2% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 95% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 98% | -3% | +1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:10AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 03:10AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 55% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 45% | 45% | +0% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 04:01AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 04:01AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 5% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 95% | -5% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 07:01AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 07:01AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 14% | -12% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 86% | +12% | +1% |