INFER Public

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 08:49PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500		Answer was correct
More than12,500		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 08, 2020 11:50PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5%		Answer was correct
More than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 19, 2020 12:55AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50%		Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than 60%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 08:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 20, 2020 09:21PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 4% inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8%		Answer was incorrect
More than 8%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2020 12:24AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36%		Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39%		Answer was incorrect
More than 39%		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2020 12:12AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 09, 2020 09:37PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $30 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $150 million		Answer was incorrect

Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 10, 2020 04:14PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 13, 2020 02:49PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2020 03:35PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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