ninjaedit

About:

I work at the Center on Longterm Risk in London. I've tried out some AI and Covid forecasting on Metaculus and done well. I'm interested in learning more about policy because it's something I haven't thought about much, and I don't follow the news.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 09, 2020 01:15PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 14, 2020 04:54PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 15, 2020 04:32PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30% Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36% Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39% Answer was incorrect
More than 39% Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 15, 2020 04:57PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 6,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000 Answer was correct
More than 12,000 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 15, 2020 06:43PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 1.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5% Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% Answer was incorrect
More than 6% Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 15, 2020 07:58PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 16, 2020 12:59PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30% Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50% Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60% Answer was incorrect
More than 60% Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 17, 2020 09:36PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 30, 2020 01:39PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 30, 2020 01:45PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5% Answer was correct
More than 1.5% Answer was incorrect
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