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Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2020 08:43PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2020 08:49PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30% Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36% Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39% Answer was incorrect
More than 39% Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2020 08:53PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 6,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000 Answer was correct
More than 12,000 Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2020 09:00PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2020 09:05PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5% Answer was correct
More than 1.5% Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2020 05:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 30,000 and 38,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 38,000 but less than or equal to 46,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 46,000 but less than or equal to 54,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 54,000 Answer was correct

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2020 05:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 24, 2020 03:48PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 15% Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% Answer was incorrect
More than 21% Answer was incorrect
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