INFER Public

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 01:19PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $300 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion		Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion		Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 01:58PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 20,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 20,000 and 35,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35,000 but less than or equal to 50,000		Answer was correct
More than 50,000 but less than or equal to 65,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 65,000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 06, 2020 12:29AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5%		Answer was correct
More than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2020 09:31PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $30 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $150 million		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2020 09:57PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%		Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 08:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2020 10:10PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 4% inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8%		Answer was incorrect
More than 8%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 18, 2020 01:38PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50%		Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than 60%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 20, 2020 08:54PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 21, 2020 12:34AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 675		Answer was correct
Between 675 and 750, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825		Answer was incorrect
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900		Answer was incorrect
More than 900		Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2020 10:14PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 6,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000		Answer was correct
More than 12,000		Answer was incorrect

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