INFER Public

Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2021 06:30AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	35%	-5%	-1%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2021 07:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 21, 2021 05:46AM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 10:03AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 14%	0%	3%	-3%	-1%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive	7%	12%	-5%	-3%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18%	30%	31%	-1%	-5%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20%	50%	40%	+10%	+6%
More than 20%	13%	14%	-1%	+3%

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 10:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 10:13AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 10:15AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 10:18AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 01, 2022 04:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2022 03:17PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Intel	30%	16%	+14%	-7%
Samsung	55%	53%	+2%	-12%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)	15%	30%	-15%	+19%
Other	0%	0%	+0%	+0%