26th
Accuracy Rank

DKC

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I love dogs, travel, writing, and geopolitical forecasting. And I feel fortunate to have all of those in my life.

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Forecasted Questions
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When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 29, 2021 01:54PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Before February 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021 Answer was correct

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 16, 2021 12:19AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.45% Answer was incorrect
Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95% Answer was incorrect
More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2% Answer was incorrect
More than 1.2% Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2021 11:21PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 5.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7% Answer was incorrect
Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 12% Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 26, 2021 11:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 15, 2021 06:20PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 27, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?

Forecast Count:
 21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 22, 2021 11:24PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 3% Answer was correct
Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 7.5% Answer was incorrect

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

As of Jan 31, 2022 12:28AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 31, 2021 12:28AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 20, 2022 08:41PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 33.0 Answer was incorrect
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5 Answer was correct
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 39.0 Answer was incorrect
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