Forecasted Questions
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2021 05:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 28, 2021 05:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 4% | 14% | -10% | -1% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 42% | 31% | +11% | +0% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 43% | 33% | +10% | +2% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 10% | 17% | -7% | +0% |
More than 0.5 | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2022 06:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 27, 2022 06:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Apple | 60% | 48% | +12% | +1% |
Microsoft | 30% | 22% | +8% | +0% |
Alphabet (Google) | 10% | 13% | -3% | -1% |
Amazon | 0% | 10% | -10% | -1% |
Tesla | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Meta (Facebook) | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2022 07:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 29, 2022 07:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2022 08:21PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 31, 2022 08:21PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intel | 20% | 16% | +4% | +1% |
Samsung | 59% | 53% | +6% | +0% |
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) | 20% | 30% | -10% | -1% |
Other | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
As of Jan 31, 2024 06:29PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:29PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 06:29PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
As of Mar 31, 2024 06:29PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:29PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 06:29PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Mar 31, 2024 | 0% | +2% | -1% |
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days ago)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:30PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 06:30PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
As of Jan 31, 2024 06:32PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 3% | +0% | +0% |
No | 97% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 97% | +0% | +0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
As of Jan 31, 2024 06:32PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 7% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 10% | -3% | -5% |
No | 93% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 90% | +3% | +5% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
As of Jan 31, 2024 06:32PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 45% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 18% | +27% | -5% |
No | 55% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 82% | -27% | +5% |