Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 23, 2021 05:01PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 23, 2021 05:01PM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 35% | +16% | -3% |
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2021 12:53AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 01, 2021 12:53AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 21% | 14% | +7% | -2% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 40% | 31% | +9% | -1% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 27% | 33% | -6% | +3% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 12% | 17% | -5% | +1% |
| More than 0.5 | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 01:41AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 17, 2021 01:41AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 01:46AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 17, 2021 01:46AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2021 07:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 20, 2021 07:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2021 07:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 20, 2021 07:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2021 07:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 20, 2021 07:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2021 02:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 28, 2021 02:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2021 03:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 28, 2021 03:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2021 03:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 28, 2021 03:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)