INFER Public

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	-0.00013
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	-0.000283
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.024653
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.225074
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?	-0.001839
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.167087
Feb 01, 2021 02:48PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.18258
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.012434
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC	What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?	-0.162057
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC	What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.086703
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.005706
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.125766
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.056398
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM UTC	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.01881
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.001971
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.017054
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.006882
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.036752
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.000007
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.057788

YJAung

Yan Aung

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