INFER Public

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?	-0.000908
May 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022	-0.064517
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.001233
Apr 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - May 2022	-0.082399
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.211548
Mar 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2022	-0.096546
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.087758
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?	-0.007423
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.192856
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)	0.003919
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	-0.016708
Feb 11, 2022 10:00PM UTC	How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	-0.015135
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.099359
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	0.002558
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	0.001687
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.001987
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	0.113966
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC	Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?	-0.05307
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	-0.005477
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.00402

Gandt

Georg Arndt

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