INFER Public

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	2%	+8%	+0%
No	90%	98%	-8%	+0%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	1%	0%	+1%	0%
2023 Q3	2%	0%	+2%	0%
2023 Q4	5%	0%	+5%	0%
2024 Q1	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
2024 Q2	3%	1%	+2%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	Jul 30, 2024	0%	+2%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jul 30, 2024	8%	+8%	-6%
No	84%	Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jul 30, 2024	92%	-8%	+6%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	10%	-5%	+1%
No	95%	90%	+5%	-1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	Jul 30, 2024	7%	+4%	-2%
No	89%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	Jul 30, 2024	93%	-4%	+2%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	18%	+32%	+0%
No	50%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	82%	-32%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	May 30, 2024	15%	-13%	-9%
No	98%	Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	May 30, 2024	85%	+13%	+9%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	7%	+2%	+1%
No	91%	Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	93%	-2%	-1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	2%	-1%	-2%
No	99%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	98%	+1%	+2%

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Abidemi Adebamiwa

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