Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:02PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:02PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2024 | 6% | -6% | -3% |
No | 100% | Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2024 | 94% | +6% | +3% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 12% | -8% | -5% |
No | 96% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 88% | +8% | +5% |
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:04PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:04PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 85% | 81% | +4% | +0% |
No | 15% | 19% | -4% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 53% | 96% | -43% | +4% |
Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 7% | 4% | +3% | -4% |
Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 12% | 0% | +12% | +0% |
Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 19% | 0% | +19% | +0% |
More than or equal to 200 | 9% | 0% | +9% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 50% | 11% | +39% | -3% |
No | 50% | 89% | -39% | +3% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 4% | 0% | +4% | 0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 35% | 1% | +34% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 55% | 95% | -40% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
No | 96% | 96% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
No | 97% | 98% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 50% | 3% | +47% | -1% |
No | 50% | 97% | -47% | +1% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |