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Question 3 of 20 in Industry
Started Nov 18, 2020 01:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 01, 2021 05:59AM UTC

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?

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Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Name Probability
Less than $260 billion 8%
Between $260 billion and $300 billion, inclusive 17%
More than $300 billion but less than or equal to $340 billion 37%
More than $340 billion but less than or equal to $380 billion 28%
More than $380 billion 9%

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