Question 8 of 97
Started Dec 10, 2021 07:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?


Related question. Metaculus has a now-closed question on the likelihood Russia annexes Ukraine by 2022.

Context. A U.S. intelligence report claims Russia has developed plans to invade Ukraine with 175,000 troops as soon as early next year. Ukraine officials estimate that more than 90,000 Russian troops have already amassed at the border, with U.S. intelligence putting the number at 70,000. During a meeting between President Biden and President Putin on December 7, 2021, Putin reportedly demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward toward Russia's borders, guarantees Biden declined to provide. Biden stated that if Russia invades Ukraine, the United States and its allies would respond with "strong economic measures." Last month, Russian ambassadors to the United Nations stated that Russia “never planned, never did, and is never going to [invade Ukraine] unless we’re provoked by Ukraine, or by somebody else.”

Resolution details. For purposes of this question, an "invasion" requires at least 50,000 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering Ukraine territory. Ukraine territory includes both the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas and the rest of the country, but excludes Crimea. An unsuccessful or repelled invasion counts, provided more than 50,000 Russian troops enter Ukraine territory.


This question was proposed by PabloAMC.

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