Question 1 of 8 in U.S.-China
Started Nov 01, 2021 01:40PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

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Context. On three separate days in October, China sent a new daily record of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ): 38 planes on October 1, 39 planes on October 2, and 56 planes on October 4. The ADIZ, which is broader than Taiwan's sovereign airspace, designates the area in which a country has the right to tell entering planes to identify themselves. According to the New York Times, the incursions "reflect Beijing’s increasingly unabashed signaling that it wants to absorb the self-ruled island and will not rule out military means to do so." Taiwan began issuing public notices of Chinese military incursions of its ADIZ in September of last year.

Resolution details. The current record is 56 planes. If a new daily record is set while this question is active, the new record will become the standard. This question resolves based on reports from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense.

Question format. This question asks about the following month, beginning with the month of December. It rolls over at the beginning of every month. For example, beginning on December 1, all forecasts will be for the month of January, and beginning on January 1, all forecasts will be for the month of February. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.

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